PARIS, Feb 15 (Reuters) – Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday lowered its outlook for French soft wheat exports this season because of competition from Black Sea supplies but made a sharp upward revision to its barley export forecast after a wave of shipments to China.
In a supply and demand outlook for major cereal crops, FranceAgriMer cut its estimate of soft wheat exports outside the European Union to 10.45 million tonnes from the 10.60 million tonnes forecast in January.
The office had increased its non-EU export outlook in the two previous months, citing strong sales to North Africa.
However, French prospects in North Africa have been curbed by competition from Black Sea origins, including Russian wheat in Algeria, while Chinese demand for French wheat appeared thin for the rest of the season, FranceAgriMer’s Paul Le Bideau told reporters.
Traders last week said that Russian wheat was expected to supply a large part of an Algerian import purchase of some 400,000 tonnes.
FranceAgriMer’s reduced projection for non-EU soft wheat exports this season was still 19% above the 2021/22 level.
The office also trimmed its forecast of 2022/23 French soft wheat exports within the EU, to 6.59 million tonnes from 6.64 million tonnes previously.
The reduced export outlook led it to increase the projection for French soft wheat stocks at the end of the season on June 30 to 2.46 million tonnes, down from the 2.33 million forecast last month, though that would be 11% below 2021/22 ending stocks.
In contrast, the office increased its outlook for French barley exports this season, including a 350,000 tonne upward revision for non-EU shipments now projected at 2.8 million tonnes.
After a slow start to the export campaign, traders have reported large sales of French barley to China, with several hundred tonnes loading in January and February.
The Chinese demand has created export optimism and some market operators surveyed by FranceAgriMer expect non-EU barley exports to reach 3 million tonnes, said Marc Zribi, head of FranceAgriMer’s grain unit.
Forecast French barley stocks at the end of 2022/23 were cut to 1.56 million tonnes from 1.97 million tonnes last month.
For maize (corn), the office trimmed its stocks forecast to 2.23 million tonnes from 2.30 million tonnes, as an upward revision to intra-EU exports offset a reduced outlook for domestic feed demand. (Reporting by Gus Trompiz Additional reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide Editing by David Goodman)